俄罗斯国家经济安全对中俄经贸合作的影响

20世纪以来,俄罗斯经历了乌克兰危机、西方经济制裁、国际油价下跌等外部因素的冲击,经济安全遭受严重威胁,在此背景下的俄罗斯政治经济战略势必波及中俄经贸合作,进而影响丝绸之路经济带建设。本文从贸易合作和对外直接投资合作方面,基于计量模型剖析俄罗斯国家经济安全对中俄经贸合作的影响过程及关联因素。研究表明俄罗斯国家经济安全危机提升了中国在俄贸易伙伴国中的地位,促使俄与中国产能合作的意愿强烈,直接投资和产能合作逐渐成为推动中俄经贸合作向纵深发展的强劲动力;俄罗斯国家经济安全危机对中俄罗贸易有显著负向影响,中俄政治关系对贸易合作有显著正向影响。这是提高中国对俄罗斯投资、提升高新技术产品在俄罗斯进口比重的机遇期,亦是推进丝绸之路经济带的重要机遇期。经济强势崛起的俄罗斯和经济体系全面崩溃的俄罗斯对丝绸之路经济带的推进均有重要影响,在与其发展战略协作伙伴关系过程中,中国恰到好处地拿捏平衡其中的大国利益边界至关重要。     

上海合作组织命运共同体:一项研究议题

构建上海合作组织命运共同体是中国政府提出的关于促进上海合作组织长远发展的重大倡议。由于上海合作组织命运共同体理念的提出时日尚短,学术界关于该理念的研究尚未全面启动。要使上海合作组织命运共同体理念成为一个有效的研究议题,不仅需要明晰上海合作组织命运共同体的具体内涵,而且需要将其纳入国际共同体、国际组织和大国外交等议题的研究,提炼出一些具有普遍性的理论命题。就攸关上海合作组织命运共同体构建的重大问题而言,至少需要回答上海合作组织命运共同体提出的理论与实践意义、上海合作组织命运共同体构建应遵循的基本路径、上海合作组织命运共同体构建的基础和条件、上海合作组织命运共同体构建面临的挑战与障碍、学术界能为上海合作组织命运共同体构建提供的对策建议等重大问题。在此过程中,学术界还需将其与周边命运共同体、人类命运共同体等家族相似性的概念纳入同一研究视域,以澄清上海合作组织命运共同体的内涵与外延,辨识上海合作组织命运共同体演变的动力与机制,并从理论层面提炼上海合作组织发展经验的特殊性与普遍性。     

兼容性制度竞争:双层对冲与地区制度的嵌套设计北大核心

地区制度的兴起增加了全球治理机制的复杂性。竞争性多边主义理论强调制度竞争会导致国际机制的碎片化和规则冲突。制度聚合理论则认为制度背景会强化规则的一致性,甚至形成制度服从。这种冲突—聚合的二分法不足以分析地区制度与多边制度之间关系的复杂现实。作者提出一个双层对冲的分析框架,以解释地区制度与核心多边制度间的联系机制;一方面,地区成员要通过建立地区制度寻求外部选项,实现对现有多边制度的制衡。另一方面,地区成员又离不开现有多边制度,需要借用现有的多边制度资源来解决地区制度建设中的机会主义问题。为了实现双层对冲,地区成员国会根据地区制度的系统冲击效应和投资报偿结构,设计不同的制度嵌套。作者比较了金融救助领域的欧洲稳定机制、清迈倡议多边化以及拉美储备基金等地区金融安排,其结果符合预期。双层对冲框架下的兼容性制度竞争有利于推动国际制度的渐进变迁,限制了大国在国际秩序转型中的冲突烈度,为世界政治的和平权力转移提供了可能。     

Inequality,public good provision and the composition of trade

This paper investigates the effect of trade liberalization on the provision of public goods and shows that inequality also plays a vital role here. Public goods help enhance the productivity of firms, lower prices and raise profitability. The provision of public goods has different effects in closed and open economies. In an open economy, the impact of productive spending on increasing profit is stronger. Consequently, the opening up of the economy shifts the benefits of productive public goods from consumers to firms. As the median voters’, share of the firm’s profit rises, public goods become more appealing and flourish. Consequently, the manufacturing export is boosted by a rise in productivity.     

Global uncertainties and portfolio flow dynamics of the BRICS countries

This paper investigates the dynamics of bond and stock market capital flows to BRICS countries under uncertainties such as global economic policy uncertainty and the US trade policy uncertainty. We use a time-varying Granger causality framework over the January 2008-November 2019 period to analyze the predictive power of uncertainties on capital flows in the form of bond and equity. The results show that the effects are heterogeneous across countries and stronger during the Global Financial Crisis period and post-2018 period while it lost its significance in the subsequent period. The negative influence of uncertainties on capital flows directed to BRICS countries is also evident in the results of non-parametric time-varying panel models. Overall, it is thought that the heterogeneous structure of the causality between uncertainty and portfolio flows into BRICS may present portfolio diversification benefits for global investors.     

Deunionization and job polarization – a macroeconomic model analysis for a small open economy

Declining unionization rates and job polarization are two important labor market developments of recent decades. A large body of literature has analyzed these phenomena separately, but little has been done to see whether there is a link between them. We employ a macroeconomic model for a small open economy with a large input–output core to analyze how deunionization may cause job polarization. Our analysis shows that medium-skilled workers are negatively affected by deunionization, mainly as a result of the heterogeneity of the elasticities of substitution between different types of labor. While the elasticities of substitution between high- and medium-skilled labor are relatively low, the elasticities of substitution between medium- and low-skilled are relatively high. As a result, when deunionization leads to increased wage dispersion, we find that demand for low-skilled increases at the expense of medium-skilled labor, thus yielding a more polarized labor market.     

Dress for success: the effect of exhibitors’ dress conformity and self-construal on attendees’ approach behavior

ABSTRACT

The purpose of the current study is to investigate how attendees’ approach behavior is influenced by exhibitors’ dress conformity. A 2 × 2 between-subjects quasi-experimental design was utilized for this study. Our results showed that conforming dress for exhibitors can lead to a higher level of approach behavior of trade show attendees as compared with nonconforming dress, and the effect of exhibitors’ dress styles on approach behavior is moderated by attendees’ self-construal. Findings of this study provide significant insights for trade show exhibitors and attendees.     

INTERNATIONAL RESERVE MANAGEMENT: A DRIFT‐SWITCHING REFLECTED JUMP‐DIFFUSION MODEL

We study the cost of shocks, that is, jump risk, with respect to reserve management when the reserve process is formulated as a drift‐switching jump diffusion with a reflecting barrier at 0. Inspired by the Brownian drift switching model, our model results in a more realistic dynamic behavior of international reserves than the buffer stock model. The new model can capture both the jump behavior in reserve dynamics and the leptokurtic feature of the increment distribution which has a higher peak and two asymmetric heavier tails than the normal distribution. Through the selection of an initial distribution that reflects certain steady state behaviors, the reserve process becomes a regenerative process. This selection enables us to derive a closed‐form expression for the total expected discounted cost of managing reserves, thus helping us to numerically find management strategies that minimize costs. The numerical results show that shocks at the reserve level have a significant effect on reserve management strategies and that model misspecification can result in nonnegligible additional costs.     

Macroeconomic policy cooperation and the G20

Has the G20 achieved its goals in macroeconomic cooperation since 2008? The paper organises the G20's efforts under five themes: macroeconomic stimulus, fiscal consolidation, monetary policy, the global financial safety net and global imbalances. The G20 was initially successful in each of these areas, but this success was short‐lived. While the G20 met its goals on macroeconomic stimulus, it has been less successful in reducing deficits and debt. While it was successful in increasing its resources, the global financial safety net remains too small, too fragmented and institutional reform is incomplete. While the G20 succeeded in moving to more market‐determined exchange rates and avoiding competitive devaluations, it struggled to avoid negative spillovers. Despite years of effort, the G20 has made limited progress in reducing global imbalances. Current account imbalances are creeping back to pre‐crisis levels. Public debt remains high and most economies are moving in the wrong direction in correcting imbalances in household savings and debt. The paper concludes that the G20 has done better in some areas than others. But to suggest the G20 is a forum in decline ignores its shift from reactive crisis response to longer‐term structural challenges outside of the pressing need of an immediate crisis.     

新冠肺炎对江苏省商贸流通业的影响与应对措施

2019年底、2020年初,一场猝不及防的新冠肺炎(NCP)病毒突袭我国的武汉地区。在地点上,武汉地区是京广线的重要节点城市,长江水运与京广铁路构成中国交通十字形的重要枢纽;在时间上,正逢中国传统春节,是中国节日经济的一个重要时期。病毒的“精准投放”并蔓延,在全国造成了严重后果,使全国上下纷纷动员进行应对,造成社会生活的暂停和群众生活的困难,对我国经济发展产生了重大影响,江苏商贸流通业也不例外地受到重创。江苏在中央的英明领导下进行了坚决的防治,商贸流通业也做了大量的工作,后期将继续做好止损增销工作。